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join succeeded (zero-imputation for spine features). 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-0.01313919352993292 }, "bah_5y_cagr": { "zillow_zori_5y_cagr": 0.2628075392776818, "zhvi_5y_cagr": 0.3732347130970228, "log_troops": -0.09467683643803214, "years_active": -0.02559238273491698, "abs_lat": 0.023452294998865305, "lon": 0.14380807426577577, "dist_to_coast_km": -0.07185137189000691, "log_income": -0.10312993577287043, "log_population": -0.08496277732645045, "log_hud_fmr": -0.010340241122651975, "z_bachelor_plus_pct": -0.012530243422888011, "z_median_age": 0.09701446387689545, "z_unemployment_pct_acs": 0.07143019487632343, "z_bls_unemployment_pct": 0.09948405196717838, "irs_net_migration_per_capita": -0.01313919352993292, "bah_5y_cagr": 0.9999999999999999 } }, "feature_means_train": { "zillow_zori_5y_cagr": 0.06039353329898399, "zhvi_5y_cagr": 0.05143168710071389, "log_troops": 5.26399432519225, "years_active": 98.34626738522475, "abs_lat": 37.11507294013908, "lon": -93.47763391520438, "dist_to_coast_km": 412.71535964103316, "log_income": 11.260576553120524, "log_population": 8.982580398974266, "log_hud_fmr": 7.363529748826111, "z_bachelor_plus_pct": 32.495989004896856, "z_median_age": 37.8386079278128, "z_unemployment_pct_acs": 5.12997403325631, "z_bls_unemployment_pct": 4.069560717878672, "irs_net_migration_per_capita": -0.06836927440283752 }, "feature_stds_train": { "zillow_zori_5y_cagr": 0.017001564851931605, "zhvi_5y_cagr": 0.019700830483404916, "log_troops": 4.294549596876304, "years_active": 24.668870494102137, "abs_lat": 6.098984746890723, "lon": 18.83684499240842, "dist_to_coast_km": 384.224666900267, "log_income": 0.204453196670432, "log_population": 5.7272242851406725, "log_hud_fmr": 0.26243406336690533, "z_bachelor_plus_pct": 8.488569282603262, "z_median_age": 3.326403178393289, "z_unemployment_pct_acs": 1.1744527864685392, "z_bls_unemployment_pct": 1.214824150853922, "irs_net_migration_per_capita": 0.17380489478922398 }, "target_summary": { "mean": 0.06326497175141244, "std": 0.023019466439704758, "min": -0.0042, "p25": 0.0471, "p50": 0.0651, "p75": 0.0802, "max": 0.1212 }, "hypothesis_results": { "H1_bah_lags_zori_growth": { "feature": "zillow_zori_5y_cagr", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": 0.0048628004779902026, "pvalue": 0.013719833732418876, "bivariate_r": 0.2628075392776818, "verdict": "supported (p<0.05, sign matches)" }, "H2_v2_income_level": { "feature": "log_income", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": -0.009571331270854558, "pvalue": 0.030580895582631853, "bivariate_r": -0.10312993577287044, "verdict": "rejected (p<0.05 but sign opposite \u2014 beta=-0.00957)", "note": "v1-untestable now tested as LEVEL \u2014 zip_master is cross-sectional" }, "H3_coast_gradient": { "feature": "dist_to_coast_km", "expected_sign": "-", "beta_standardized": 0.00028378775131160903, "pvalue": 0.9053398764269558, "bivariate_r": -0.07185137189000691, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.91, beta=+0.000284)" }, "H4_v2_population_level": { "feature": "log_population", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": -0.0011080787865391478, "pvalue": 0.6561531422370103, "bivariate_r": -0.08496277732645045, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.66, beta=-0.00111)", "note": "v1-untestable now tested as LEVEL \u2014 see H2 note" }, "H5_troop_count": { "feature": "log_troops", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": -0.0024088852196991325, "pvalue": 0.3205022245049943, "bivariate_r": -0.09467683643803212, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.32, beta=-0.00241)", "caveat": "cross-sectional level, not change" }, "H6_education": { "feature": "z_bachelor_plus_pct", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": 0.0037952549719160247, "pvalue": 0.276273303366678, "bivariate_r": -0.012530243422888011, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.28, beta=+0.0038)" }, "H7_net_migration": { "feature": "irs_net_migration_per_capita", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": -0.0015380714659316772, "pvalue": 0.46441744236463567, "bivariate_r": -0.01313919352993292, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.46, beta=-0.00154)", "note": "IRS 2022 single-year migration; this is a 1y proxy not a 5y signal" }, "H8_hud_fmr_level": { "feature": "log_hud_fmr", "expected_sign": "+", "beta_standardized": 0.003120707548294095, "pvalue": 0.4733811849982006, "bivariate_r": -0.010340241122651975, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.47, beta=+0.00312)", "note": "zip_master holds latest FMR level only; growth-on-growth was pre-registered but not testable from this spine \u2014 flagged." }, "H9_unemployment_low": { "feature": "z_bls_unemployment_pct", "expected_sign": "-", "beta_standardized": 0.004357844783649039, "pvalue": 0.08529258357875318, "bivariate_r": 0.09948405196717837, "verdict": "inconclusive (p=0.09, beta=+0.00436)" } }, "join_diagnostics": { "installations_joined_to_county": 170, "installations_missed": 124, "unique_counties_in_zipmaster": 3207 }, "missingness": { "zillow_zori_5y_cagr_imputed_count": 77, "zhvi_5y_cagr_imputed_count": 3, "log_income_imputed_count": 51, "log_hud_fmr_imputed_count": 51, "log_population_imputed_count": 0, "z_bachelor_plus_pct_imputed_count": 51, "z_unemployment_pct_acs_imputed_count": 51, "z_bls_unemployment_pct_imputed_count": 51, "irs_net_migration_per_capita_imputed_count": 51, "years_active_imputed_count": 25, "dist_to_coast_km_imputed_count": 0, "z_median_age_imputed_count": 51 }, "v1_compare": { "r2_train_v1": 0.24018169917064836, "r2_test_v1": -0.2715947853933458, "n_v1": 177, "features_v1": [ "zillow_zori_5y_cagr", "zhvi_5y_cagr", "log_troops", "years_active", "abs_lat", "lon", "dist_to_coast_km" ] }, "_meta": { "fitted": "2026-05-21", "version": "v2", "pre_registered_in": "projects/bah-research/RESEARCH.md, \"v2 with zip_master\" section", "no_fabrication": true, "split": { "train_pct": 0.8, "test_pct": 0.2, "random_state": 42 }, "standardization": "z-score on training set, applied to test set", "tier": "BAH E5 with-dependents (2021->2026 CAGR)", "sources": [ "DoD Defense Travel Management Office \u2014 historical BAH 2013-2026", "Zillow Research \u2014 ZORI (Observed Rent Index), ZHVI (Home Value Index)", "DoD / open-source installation rosters \u2014 troop_count, lat/lon, years_active", "projects/zipdata/data/zip_master.json (31,646 ZCTAs, 2026-05-21)", " - ACS B19013 median household income", " - ACS B01003 total population", " - ACS B01002 median age", " - ACS B15003 bachelor-plus pct", " - ACS B23025 unemployment pct (decennial)", " - HUD FMR 2BR FY26 SAFMR / FY25 county fallback", " - BLS LAUS 2024 county annual unemployment", " - IRS SOI county migration 2022-2023" ], "limitations": [ "n=177 MHAs \u2014 same binding constraint as v1", "zip_master ACS/HUD/BLS/IRS features are LEVELS not 5y growth \u2014 H2/H4/H8 tested as level proxies, not growth-on-growth", "County-level aggregation: per-installation feeder_county is mapped to a zip_master county_fips; un-mapped installations get NaN and fall back to cohort-mean imputation with a missingness dummy", "No spatial-cluster correction on standard errors", "sklearn missing: GBM result is null", "Causation NOT inferred \u2014 observational cross-section" ] } }